US Economy Shows New Crisis Signal: Critical Level of Oil Stocks Breached

US commercial crude oil inventories experienced a significant drop last week, defying market expectations. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of 7.2 million barrels, a stark contrast to the 700,000-barrel increase analysts had predicted.

This substantial decline brought total commercial crude oil stocks down to 404.5 million barrels. Adding to the supply reduction, strategic petroleum reserves also decreased by 3.8 million barrels, falling to 307.7 million barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks remained unchanged at 211.3 million barrels.

Further contributing to the market dynamics, US daily crude oil production saw a slight dip. During the week of July 18-24, production fell by 2,000 barrels per day to 13.796 million barrels per day compared to the previous week. The country's crude oil imports also decreased, dropping by 124,000 barrels per day to 5.683 million barrels. Conversely, crude oil exports rose by 114,000 barrels per day, reaching 3.467 million barrels.

The EIA's "Short-Term Energy Outlook Report" for July 2026 forecasts that average daily crude oil production in the US will hover around 13.78 million barrels this year. The recent inventory drawdown, coupled with production and trade flow shifts, suggests a tightening supply picture in the world's largest oil consumer.