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🇵🇾 Paraguay /Disasters & Emergencies

US forecasts below-average Atlantic hurricane season

From ABC Color · () Spanish

Translated from Spanish and summarized by DistantNews. Read the original for the full story.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 3 to 6 hurricanes.
  • The forecast anticipates 8 to 14 named storms in the Atlantic, contrasting with a predicted above-average season in the Pacific.
  • The prediction is influenced by the likely occurrence of El Niño, which typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity.

The United States, through its National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has issued its forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-average activity. This projection, released annually before the season officially begins on June 1, indicates a reduced number of named storms and hurricanes compared to historical averages.

The NOAA predicts a below-normal season for 2026, with approximately a 55% probability of being below normal, a 35% probability of being near normal, and a 10% probability of being above normal.

· Neil JacobsNeil Jacobs, the NOAA administrator, stated this during a press conference detailing the hurricane season forecast.

The NOAA's outlook suggests a 55% chance of a below-normal season, with an estimated 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. This contrasts sharply with the Pacific, where increased cyclonic activity is expected.

A significant factor influencing this forecast is the anticipated development of El Niño, a warming of Pacific Ocean waters that alters global weather patterns. El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane formation by hindering the development of tropical waves originating from Africa. The NOAA highlights an 82% probability of El Niño forming between May and June, with a high likelihood of it strengthening, potentially to 'Super El Niño' status by year-end.

In the central and eastern Pacific, we predict a 70% probability of above-normal activity.

· Neil JacobsNeil Jacobs, the NOAA administrator, contrasted the Atlantic forecast with predictions for the Pacific during the press conference.

From a U.S. perspective, this forecast offers a degree of reassurance, as a less active season generally means reduced risk to coastal communities and infrastructure. However, the NOAA emphasizes that even below-average seasons can produce destructive storms, urging continued preparedness. The agency's scientific rigor and data-driven approach provide a crucial early warning system, allowing for better planning and resource allocation across the affected regions.

El Niño increases the ciza

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About this summary

Originally published by ABC Color in Spanish. Translated, summarized, and contextualized automatically by DistantNews, with a note on how the source frames the story. Not individually reviewed before publishing. How this works.

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