US foreign policy enters Brazil's election as far-right eyes external support

An enormous US flag draped across the stage at a rally for Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy in Copacabana on Sunday, August 16, underscored a new dynamic in Brazil's presidential election: the overt insertion of US foreign policy into the political arena.

The gesture, whose specific motives remain unclear, appeared to celebrate explicit support from the Trump administration for the far-right candidate. This has fueled speculation about continued, more direct US involvement in the Brazilian presidential race. The White House's potential interference is a real possibility, marked by the political use of tariffs, attempts to monitor Brazil's electronic voting system, and increasingly tense diplomatic relations, suggesting an intent to influence the election's outcome or create grounds for contesting it if the Workers' Party (PT) wins.

This situation is unprecedented in recent US-Brazil relations, which have historically been based on pragmatism and negotiation. It bears resemblance to US actions during Brazil's 1962 parliamentary elections at the height of the Cold War, when US funds supported right-wing congressional candidates. Foreign interference is a concern for the Brazilian public, which is divided on the issue. A Datafolha poll revealed that half of voters believe foreign countries might interfere, and nearly a fifth see no problem with it.

The acceptance of external interference varies significantly by political leaning. Those favoring Bolsonaro's son are 3.5 times more likely to believe in foreign intervention than those leaning towards Lula. Furthermore, declared Bolsonaro supporters are three times more likely than PT supporters to be unconcerned about foreign influence, and slightly more likely than independents.

These data also confirm that the radicalization of political positions, fueled by the rise of the far-right, has placed international policy on the electoral agenda. Previously, foreign policy issues did not significantly differentiate major candidates. However, right-wing populism has transformed these topics into political identity markers. Consequently, relations with countries like Venezuela or Cuba, previously less prominent in Brazilian foreign policy discussions, have gained prominence in electoral debates.