US: Hormuz deal 'very close,' but Iran's control, fees remain sticking points

The United States has signaled that a potential agreement between Iran and Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz is imminent, following ongoing negotiations. However, substantial differences remain between the U.S. and Iran, particularly regarding Iran's proposed control over maritime traffic and the implementation of a 'service fee' for passage.

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There has been progress, but we have not yet reached a final agreement. We hope that an agreement will be reached very soon.

U.S. officials, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, have expressed optimism about a swift resolution. Sullivan stated that while progress has been made, a final agreement is not yet reached but is hoped for very soon. Bessant suggested a possibility of an agreement opening the strait within days, emphasizing that free passage would be ensured, without directly addressing the fee issue.

Reports indicate that the proposed deal deviates from the pre-war free navigation system sought by the U.S. Discussions reportedly involve Iran controlling shipping lanes entering the Persian Gulf and Oman managing those exiting. A 'service fee' for costs related to ship security and environmental protection is also under consideration. Iran is reportedly seeking direct control over vessels entering the strait and oversight of those exiting, with ships needing prior notification to Iran and clearance through Oman.

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There is a possibility that an agreement will be reached today or tomorrow to open the strait and return the conflict to a more normal state.

Further complicating the situation, Iran is also reportedly demanding guarantees against future U.S. attacks, the lifting of maritime blockades on its ports, and eased oil sanctions. Conversely, the U.S. and regional partners are pushing for assurances that Iran and its proxies will cease threatening regional shipping. U.S. officials have clarified that any temporary shipping lanes would not involve Iranian approval, permits, or fees, aiming to restore the pre-conflict status quo where neither party controlled the lanes or passage rights. The potential for internal opposition from Iran's Revolutionary Guard, which may not accept a deal that doesn't affirm Iran's control, remains a significant variable. Amidst these negotiations, a commercial vessel was reportedly hit by an unidentified projectile in the waters near Oman, highlighting the volatile security situation in the region.

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The overall concept currently being discussed is that Tehran has little possibility of changing its position.