US intelligence says Iran appears determined to continue war

Iran has emerged from months of stop-and-start fighting more confident in its ability to attack targets across the Middle East, according to US intelligence assessments. The reports suggest Tehran may be prepared to keep the conflict going for months, frustrating Washington rather than seeking a quick settlement.

The latest exchanges followed a period of relative calm. Iran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz and American troops in the region, while US forces struck inside Iran, killing military personnel and civilians. The fighting remains limited so far, but officials who have reviewed the intelligence say Iran’s hard-line government may be considering a significant escalation.

The assessments indicate that Iran believes it understands its military strengths better after the on-again, off-again war. Current and former officials said the reports point to difficult negotiations over any agreement that would fully end the conflict. Some officials also said Iran appears content to worsen President Donald Trump’s political problems ahead of the US midterm elections.

Trump is not pursuing negotiations for now. He has said economic pressure can force Tehran to make concessions over control of the Strait of Hormuz and, eventually, its nuclear program. US officials who read the intelligence, however, said sanctions are likely to provoke further escalation in the short term.

Iran could repeat actions it took in July, when it attacked US military bases in the Middle East, killing three Americans in Jordan, and struck shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure in Kuwait and elsewhere. Iran-linked hackers were also probably responsible for attacks on more than 100 US water systems in late July. The attacks did not make water unsafe to drink, but some caused disruptions that required manual overrides and precautionary boil-water advisories. Officials said the hackers have also shown interest in oil and gas infrastructure, though it remains unclear whether any energy systems have been breached.