US, Iran end 106-day war amid economic, political pressures

The United States and Iran have reached a de facto ceasefire after 106 days of conflict, a resolution analysts attribute to unbearable economic shocks, deteriorating public opinion, and a costly war of attrition. For the U.S., escalating oil prices, resurgent inflation, and a dip in approval ratings ahead of the November midterm elections proved decisive. Iran, meanwhile, faced an economic breaking point, with war expenses compounding the effects of long-standing sanctions.

Following the initial U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, which failed to force Iran's surrender, the world's oil supply route, the Strait of Hormuz, was blockaded. Despite losing its supreme leader, Iran maintained its regime and utilized the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, significantly complicating President Donald Trump's objectives. This led to an unusual situation of a 40-day war followed by over 60 days of ceasefire, punctuated by ongoing clashes over the Strait of Hormuz even as negotiations progressed.

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The U.S. faced rising inflation and declining approval ratings ahead of midterm elections, while Iran's economy neared collapse under sanctions and war costs.

Crafting a mutually satisfactory end-of-war agreement proved difficult, given the stalemate. The U.S. demanded Iran's complete abandonment of its nuclear program and the removal of enriched uranium, while Iran insisted on the easing of economic sanctions and the return of frozen assets. Israel, advocating for continued attacks on Iran, further complicated negotiations by targeting Hezbollah, a pro-Iranian militant group in Lebanon.

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The U.S. demanded Iran's complete abandonment of its nuclear program and the removal of enriched uranium, while Iran insisted on the easing of economic sanctions and the return of frozen assets.

President Trump faced considerable political pressure from rising gasoline prices, renewed inflation, and interest rate concerns as the November midterm elections approached. A Reuters poll conducted June 6-8 indicated only 35% approval for Trump's job performance, nearing his low of 34% in late April. Faced with a protracted conflict rather than a swift victory, Trump lowered his demands from Iran's capitulation to a memorandum of understanding. His initial goals of regime change and eliminating Iran's nuclear capabilities shifted; he told The Wall Street Journal on June 14 that he was not interested in regime change and considered Iran's current leadership "the most rational group" he had ever dealt with.

Iran also lacked the stamina for a protracted war. After the U.S. imposed a naval "counter-blockade" on April 13, cutting off oil export revenues, Iran could no longer sustain the conflict. Its already precarious economic situation deteriorated to the brink of national bankruptcy. According to The New York Times, the imminent collapse of negotiations, fueled by an Israeli airstrike on Lebanon just before the memorandum of understanding was finalized, created a sense of urgency for both the U.S. and Iran to conclude an agreement.

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Trump told The Wall Street Journal on June 14 that he was not interested in regime change and considered Iran's current leadership "the most rational group" he had ever dealt with.

Trump reportedly aimed to showcase achievements regarding the Iran war at the G7 summit in France from June 15-17. Iran, seeking to avoid having the historic agreement's signing coincide with Trump's birthday on June 14, engaged in a last-minute negotiation over the announcement time. Ultimately, due to the time difference, the agreement was announced on June 14 in the U.S. and June 15 in Iran. The Washington Post criticized Trump's celebratory post, "Now let the oil flow," noting that he was celebrating the world returning to normal as it was before the conflict began on February 27.

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"Now let the oil flow," Trump's celebratory post.