US-Iran 'nuclear-for-money' deal nears, but Hormuz control remains contentious

The United States and Iran appear to be on the verge of agreeing to a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at de-escalating tensions, with a potential framework involving stricter regulation of Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for phased sanctions relief. However, significant disagreements persist over crucial details, particularly concerning the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

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The agreement is scheduled to be signed tomorrow (14th), and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to everyone immediately after signing.

Former President Donald Trump indicated that the agreement was set to be signed soon, stating, "The agreement is scheduled to be signed tomorrow (14th), and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to everyone immediately after signing." He notably omitted any mention of Iran's demands for control over the strait and the imposition of passage fees, issues he has previously opposed. Iran, conversely, asserts its sovereign right to control the strait, with Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stating, "Iran's exercise of sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz is recognized under international law." Iran also insists on the necessity of charging transit fees, although discussions on management plans are expected to continue over the next 60 days.

Details surrounding Iran's nuclear program also remain a point of contention. Trump stated that Iran would not possess nuclear weapons and that its enriched uranium would be diluted within Iran or exported. A senior U.S. official elaborated that the agreement includes provisions for "destroying enriched uranium on-site and exporting it." Iran's official statements on the nuclear issue are more concise, with the semi-official Mehr News Agency reporting that the MOU includes a 60-day negotiation period on nuclear matters and a clause reaffirming Iran's non-possession of nuclear weapons.

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Iran's exercise of sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz is recognized under international law. The key is that Iran, as a coastal state, must be able to take necessary measures in cooperation with Oman to manage passage and safety in the Strait of Hormuz.

Disparities also exist regarding sanctions relief and frozen assets. The reported draft MOU includes the unfreezing of $24 billion (36 trillion won) in Iranian assets held abroad, with half to be released upon signing. It also proposes a 60-day suspension of U.S. and allied sanctions on Iranian finance, oil, and petrochemical products, alongside a $300 billion (455 trillion won) reconstruction plan for Iran. However, U.S. officials have denied Iran's claims of immediate asset release, characterizing them as propaganda for domestic hardliners. They emphasized that Iran would receive no benefits merely from signing or negotiating, with economic compensation contingent upon concrete actions like transferring nuclear materials and dismantling nuclear programs.

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Iran is propaganda for persuading domestic hardliners. Iran will not gain anything just by signing the agreement or through the negotiations themselves.