US midterms could bring ‘renewed volatility’ to China ties, veteran diplomat warns

A veteran Chinese diplomat has cautioned that the upcoming US midterm elections could usher in a period of heightened volatility for China-US relations. Bian Qingzu, former secretary general of the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, believes the election outcomes will significantly impact the stability of ties between the two nations.

Bian noted the prevailing anti-Trump sentiment among American voters and the widespread expectation that Democrats might regain control of the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate. He anticipates that a more assertive Congress, particularly under Democratic leadership, would likely pursue additional investigations and enact more confrontational legislation targeting China.

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The results [of the 2026 midterms] … are likely to have a profound impact on the stability of China-US relations.

According to Bian, Democratic control of Congress could compel the White House to adopt a firmer stance on sensitive issues like Taiwan and Xinjiang. This, he warned, could push US-China relations away from a phase of seeking stability and back into a period of renewed volatility. The Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, founded in 1954, has historically served as a channel for non-governmental exchanges, often paving the way for official diplomatic contacts.

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Democratic control of Congress could also put pressure on the White House to adopt a tougher stance on issues such as Taiwan and Xinjiang, potentially driving US-China relations from a phase of seeking stability back into one of renewed volatility.