US plan for Venezuela's reconstruction risks failure without judicial reform, experts warn

The United States' roadmap for Venezuela's reconstruction after Nicolás Maduro's departure in January 2026 is critically endangered by the absence of a robust judicial system, a recent Chatham House report warns. The ambitious three-stage plan, stabilization, recovery/reconciliation, and transition, is destined to fail if the restoration of the rule of law and judicial independence is not immediately prioritized.

Authors Christopher Sabatini and Alexandra Farsari emphasize that promises of social peace and economic growth are unattainable without deep reforms. These reforms must safeguard private property, contractual rights, and human rights. "The success of the U.S. plan depends on Venezuela establishing and maintaining an independent and efficient judicial system," the report states.

Following a devastating 80% GDP drop between 2014 and 2021, and with 73% of the population living in poverty in 2024, citizen impatience heightens the risk of renewed social unrest if living standards do not improve rapidly. Chatham House stresses that the current focus on the extractive sector is insufficient and risky. Changes to the hydrocarbons law in February 2026 fell short of investor expectations, retaining broad governmental discretion that "risks corruption and favoritism in political decisions."

To diversify the economy, an "evaluation and rebalancing of judicial personnel" and strengthened impartiality in commercial arbitration are imperative. The transition also demands a firm commitment to human rights, including repealing repressive laws like the "Simón Bolívar Law" and releasing an estimated 500 to 600 political prisoners still detained as of late May. However, experts note the interim government has shown "little tolerance for checks and balances on its authority," creating direct tension with reform advocates.

For Venezuela to fully reintegrate into international capital markets, it must address an estimated $150 billion to $170 billion in external debt in default. While the International Monetary Fund has resumed contact, the report suggests any restructuring process must be leveraged to ensure "concrete reforms in the rule of law, separation of powers, and fiscal transparency."

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The success of the U.S. plan depends on Venezuela establishing and maintaining an independent and efficient judicial system.