US-Saudi nuclear deal faces uncertainty over Israel normalization condition

The United States and Saudi Arabia have signed a new civil nuclear cooperation agreement, but the deal's future is uncertain due to a last-minute condition imposed by former President Donald Trump. Trump stated the agreement would not take effect unless Saudi Arabia normalizes relations with Israel.

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The agreement will not apply unless Saudi Arabia normalizes relations with Israel.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman signed the "123 agreement," a 30-year arrangement for U.S. companies to supply nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia. The deal requires U.S. Congressional approval. However, Trump's intervention has cast a shadow over the pact, linking it to the Abraham Accords, an initiative from his previous term that normalized ties between Israel and several Arab nations.

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the agreement would create a precedent by which other powers could circumvent international restrictions.

Negotiations for this agreement have been ongoing for nearly a decade. While the Biden administration viewed it as part of a broader Saudi-Israel normalization pact, efforts stalled after the October 7th Hamas attack. Trump's administration revived these efforts last year. U.S. officials suggest the deal could allow Saudi Arabia to enrich its own fuel without the stringent oversight of the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol. Critics, however, warn this sets a dangerous precedent, potentially enabling other nations to bypass international restrictions.

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the absence of standard IAEA protocols, which are included in the UAE's agreement, could be a very big problem.

Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association called the agreement "reckless," predicting long-term consequences. Her colleague, Jon Erath, highlighted the potential problems arising from the absence of standard IAEA protocols, which are included in the UAE's agreement. Riyadh maintains it will not pursue nuclear weapons unless Iran does. Yet, analysts fear a domino effect, potentially leading Egypt or Turkey to seek similar capabilities. This development is particularly sensitive given the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which is ostensibly aimed at preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Analysts agree that granting allies uranium enrichment rights while denying them to adversaries could embolden Iran to demand equal rights, further complicating already difficult negotiations.

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Riyadh claims it will not pursue nuclear weapons unless Iran does.