US Urges 'Follow Us' in Asia, But Can It Be Trusted?

Elbridge Colby, the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Defense, recently declared that Asia is America's top priority and that the U.S. is committed to maintaining a favorable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Speaking in Manila, Colby reiterated the strategy of maintaining a "deterrence by denial posture" along the first island chain, effectively signaling continued efforts to curb China's expansion in the Western Pacific.

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We prioritize Asia.

Colby also challenged the perception of the U.S. as an unreliable partner, stating that allies should not take American security support for granted. He argued that regional partners must contribute their fair share to collective defense, calling the idea of "middle power alliances without America" a "hollow and futile attempt." He stressed that true deterrence stems from "hard power actually deployed and the political will to use it," asserting that only the U.S. can provide this.

Further elaborating on U.S. nuclear strategy at a symposium, Colby indicated that regional conflicts escalating to nuclear use are a greater concern than direct attacks on the U.S. mainland. He suggested that the use of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons could be a rational option, and that U.S. leadership is reviewing these guidelines. This has fueled speculation that the U.S. might consider forward-deploying tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea or Japan, aimed at China.

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The United States is not disengaging from Asia; quite the opposite.

However, the article questions the wisdom of relying on the U.S., citing its mixed record in post-WWII conflicts. It points to the Iraq War as an example where U.S. involvement arguably worsened the situation and caused significant collateral damage to regional allies. The author suggests that regional countries, like South Korea, may share different threat perceptions than the U.S., with North Korea being Seoul's primary concern, while China is Washington's. The article questions whether South Korea would accept the deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons or a restructuring of U.S. Forces Korea under a new Northeast Asia Command targeting China, as it could place the peninsula at the forefront of a new Cold War.

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The unwavering goal of the United States is to maintain a favorable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.

Ultimately, the article argues that for Colby's message to resonate, there must be a shared understanding of threats between the U.S. and its regional allies. It also raises concerns about U.S. interference in South Korean domestic politics and trade issues. The author concludes that while the U.S. message of strength is understood, it must be backed by genuine trust and a commitment to "preventive diplomacy" to ease tensions and build confidence, rather than relying solely on deterrence and power balance.

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We must maintain a deterrence by denial posture along the first island chain.