US weapons shortage could invite Russia, China conflict: NYT

The United States' rapidly diminishing weapons supply could embolden Russia and China to initiate direct conflict, according to senior officials and defense experts speaking to The New York Times. The US has heavily drawn down its offensive and defensive weapons during its war with Iran, leading to shortages that could persist long after the current administration's tenure, leaving future presidencies vulnerable.

Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, characterized the depleted munitions stockpile as a "generational annihilation of the means of conventional deterrence." He stated, "It’s impossible for that not to have a significant effect on the decision calculus of Russia and China." Karako suggested that these nations "may do something quite deliberate and at the time of their choosing, because keep in mind, we’re going to take years to reconstitute."

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It’s impossible for that not to have a significant effect on the decision calculus of Russia and China.

Reuters recently reported that the US has utilized nearly all of its highly accurate long-range missiles, each costing approximately one million dollars to produce. Consequently, the Pentagon has been compelled to redeploy ships, aircraft, and air defense units from Asia and Europe to the Middle East. US officials cited by The New York Times indicated that these redeployments have had "cascading consequences" for troop morale and equipment maintenance.

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They may do something quite deliberate and at the time of their choosing, because keep in mind, we’re going to take years to reconstitute.

The low munitions stockpile has become a point of tension between the president and the Pentagon. U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine has reportedly been seeking "off-ramps" for the ongoing conflict. The New York Times reported that Caine had informed President Donald Trump about the munitions shortages before the war with Iran commenced, but the president proceeded with the military action.

Data from The Washington Post revealed that in the first month of the conflict with Iran, the US expended over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles, more than 1,000 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles, and at least 1,300 tactical ballistic missiles. The New York Times further reported that the US used at least 1,500 Patriot interceptors. According to anonymous sources, the US stockpile of Patriot interceptor missiles has dwindled to a low of 1,700 munitions. Despite these concerns, the Trump administration has urged US defense contractors to increase munitions production, with Trump stating in July that "Our defense companies are, at this moment, making more munitions than they have ever made before, in addition to expanding their plants and equipment at record levels."

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Our defense companies are, at this moment, making more munitions than they have ever made before, in addition to expanding their plants and equipment at record levels.