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US will blame Israel if large-scale attacks against Iran fail, former defense official warns

From Jerusalem Post · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • Former senior defense official Avner Vilan warned that the US would blame Israel if a large-scale attack against Iran fails.
  • Vilan described the current situation between the US and Iran as a fragile status quo, neither agreement nor full-scale war, with neither side eager to change it.
  • He assessed that Iran is unwilling to make the concessions needed for an agreement and prefers to buy time, while the US has reached its limit for concessions.

The United States will hold Israel responsible if another large-scale attack against Iran falters, warned Avner Vilan, a former senior defense official and Iranian nuclear expert. He told 103FM on Monday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu risks escalating criticism from Washington if he persuades U.S. President Donald Trump to renew strikes during an upcoming visit.

If he succeeds in persuading Trump to attack again, and the attack succeeds, I take my hat off to him. But if it does not succeed, the US will blame us even more for dragging it into a war that damaged its international standing and drove up fuel prices.

— Avner VilanFormer senior defense official and Iranian nuclear expert Avner Vilan explained the potential consequences of a failed attack on Iran.

"If he succeeds in persuading Trump to attack again, and the attack succeeds, I take my hat off to him," Vilan stated. "But if it does not succeed, the US will blame us even more for dragging it into a war that damaged its international standing and drove up fuel prices."

Since the end of Operation Roaring Lion, the situation has been neither here nor there, a kind of status quo involving a new balance of neither peace nor war. It may be a better situation for all the players than the alternatives.

— Avner VilanVilan described the current state of relations between the US and Iran.

Vilan described the current dynamic between the U.S. and Iran as a precarious balance, existing in a state of "neither peace nor war" since the end of "Operation Roaring Lion" in March. He noted that neither side is satisfied with this status quo but is not rushing to alter it, as the alternatives, a formal agreement or high-intensity war, are significantly more complex and dangerous.

The alternatives are an agreement or high-intensity war.

— Avner VilanVilan outlined the dangerous options facing the US and Iran.

However, Vilan assessed that Iran is currently unwilling to concede what is necessary for an agreement. "Iran does not want to reach an agreement. It is not prepared to relinquish what it achieved in Hormuz, and therefore it would prefer war to going backward," he explained. He believes Iran aims to stall until the U.S. midterm elections or a change in presidency. The U.S. administration, having already extended considerable concessions, now anticipates reciprocal moves from Tehran, placing Washington in a difficult position.

Iran does not want to reach an agreement. It is not prepared to relinquish what it achieved in Hormuz, and therefore it would prefer war to going backward.

— Avner VilanVilan assessed Iran's current stance on reaching a new agreement.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Jerusalem Post. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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