Venezuela: Better Than Before, But Far From Well

The situation in Venezuela presents a complex picture of "informed realism," as described by analysts. While undeniable changes have occurred since January 3rd – including the reopening of oil operations, the issuance of new licenses, and reconnection with the IMF – the fundamental power structure remains intact. Diosdado Cabello continues to wield significant influence, utilizing Delcy Rodríguez as a key figure to manage both domestic affairs and diplomatic overtures to Washington.

María Corina Machado commands overwhelming popular support, with polls showing her with a plebiscitary majority. She represents the sole genuine counterweight to the government's attempts at authoritarian normalization. However, she lacks control over the critical levers of power: the armed forces, state revenue, and the institutional apparatus. This creates a persistent imbalance: the Chavista movement possesses the state machinery but has lost popular connection, while Machado has the people's backing but not the state's control.

Economically, there are signs of recovery. Oil production has rebounded to around 1.1 million barrels per day, with projections for further growth. A package of general licenses allows major international oil companies to operate and export, with payments channeled through U.S. Treasury-supervised accounts. Delcy Rodríguez has been recognized by the U.S. as a key contact for litigation, and diplomatic ties, including the reopening of the embassy, are advancing. This economic engagement, however, is carefully managed by Cabello and Rodríguez to alleviate international pressure and preserve the core tenets of the revolution, not to cede power.

While business leaders express optimism, with a vast majority anticipating growth in 2026, significant challenges remain. Inflation is projected to remain extremely high, and widespread poverty continues to plague the population. The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth, but the persistent economic disparities highlight that the current strategy is focused on administering the crisis rather than fundamentally resolving it. From our perspective at El Nacional, this duality of economic recovery for some and continued hardship for the majority is the defining characteristic of Venezuela's current trajectory.