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🇳🇮 Nicaragua /Economy & Trade

Venezuela is growing, but recovery is not reaching everyone

From Confidencial · () Spanish

Translated from Spanish and summarized by DistantNews. Read the original for the full story.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Ongoing story
  • Venezuela’s GDP grew 7.14% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, accelerating from 2.51% in the first quarter, according to the Central Bank of Venezuela.
  • Oil production drove much of the rebound, rising from about 823,000 barrels per day in January to roughly 1.12 million in July, while non-oil activity also expanded.
  • Economists warn that Venezuela remains far below its pre-crisis levels and question the transparency and completeness of the recently published data.

Venezuela is posting growth figures that would have seemed difficult to imagine a few years ago. Gross domestic product rose 7.14% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, sharply faster than the 2.51% recorded in the first three months of the year. The Central Bank of Venezuela says the economy has now grown for 21 consecutive quarters.

Yet calling this a recovery requires caution. Venezuela suffered one of the largest peacetime economic collapses in Latin America, and activity and per-capita income remain well below their pre-crisis levels. “We are looking at an economy that comes from an extraordinary contraction and still maintains levels of activity and per-capita income far below those it had before the crisis,” Venezuelan economist Asdrúbal Oliveros told DW. “Growing at relatively high rates does not necessarily mean having recovered what was lost.”

We are looking at an economy that comes from an extraordinary contraction and still maintains levels of activity and per-capita income far below those it had before the crisis.

— Asdrúbal OliverosThe Venezuelan economist cautions against describing the latest growth figures as a full recovery.

Oil is again powering the expansion. The central bank reported 9.1% year-on-year growth in oil activity between April and June, while non-oil activity increased 5.79%. Financial and insurance services grew 26.26%, and construction rose 16.11%.

Growing at relatively high rates does not necessarily mean having recovered what was lost.

— Asdrúbal OliverosOliveros distinguishes recent expansion from a return to pre-crisis economic levels.

Oil production also shows the change since the start of the year. Secondary sources cited by OPEC’s monthly reports put Venezuela’s output at about 823,000 barrels a day in January and roughly 1.12 million in July. Oil supports GDP directly, but it also supplies the foreign currency needed by an economy that operates largely in dollars. Higher production, especially higher exports, has brought in more foreign currency, Oliveros said, giving the state greater room to intervene in the exchange market and making more dollars available to businesses.

The private-sector rebound is uneven. Commerce, services, technology, financial activities and some industrial segments are showing momentum, while sectors dependent mainly on mass consumption face a different situation. Economist José Manuel Puente also warns about data quality. The central bank has resumed publishing growth figures after years of incomplete information, but it reports rates of change without all the figures needed to reconstruct the series properly. “There has been a problem of opacity and transparency for many years,” Puente told DW.

There has been a problem of opacity and transparency for many years.

— José Manuel PuenteThe economist questions the transparency and completeness of Venezuela’s newly published economic data.
About this summary

Originally published by Confidencial in Spanish. Translated, summarized, and contextualized automatically by DistantNews, with a note on how the source frames the story. Not individually reviewed before publishing. How this works.

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