Venezuela's Debt Restructuring: Oil and Debt Remain Mysteries Amidst Opaque Negotiations

Negotiations to restructure Venezuela's external debt, announced by the interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez, are proceeding in a murky and secretive manner, economists say. The process, announced in May, has been plagued by a lack of official information, with an expected "blue book" detailing the national economy's debt sustainability status delayed. Amidst a national emergency caused by earthquakes, the debt renegotiation was initially sidelined. However, Vice President of Economy Calixto Ortega recently affirmed that plans are still in motion. He stated that technical meetings with partners and financial institutions have taken place, with the aim of publishing detailed analyses in the coming weeks to facilitate an orderly, transparent, and credible restructuring process.

However, transparency has been notably absent. The interim government has not disclosed the amount of oil revenue the economy is receiving, a critical factor as Venezuela's financial activities are reportedly under the tutelage of the Trump administration. Oil revenues are not only the lifeblood of the Venezuelan economy but would also serve as the future guarantee for any refinanced debt. A document circulating among economists highlights the lack of declarations, timelines, or verifiable figures regarding Venezuelan oil sales, which the U.S. has been handling for six months. The identity of the liquidating bank remains undisclosed, and it is unclear who the independent auditor is, while the owners of the oil are being kept in the dark about the figures.

Trump has claimed that "Venezuela has never made so much money" from its oil. This statement contrasts sharply with the country's past, when it exported nearly 3 million barrels daily at $100 per barrel, generating revenues that far exceeded any figures this current scheme might produce. While the Chavista government is acknowledged to have squandered that fortune, the current administration's efforts to convince Venezuelans that a reduced flow, sold at a discount through intermediaries and commissions, will generate significant income is met with skepticism.

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Paralelamente a la respuesta a la emergencia seguimos avanzando de manera ordenada en la hoja de ruta para el proceso de reestructuración de la deuda soberana.