Vietnam's stock market subdued amid macroeconomic uncertainty

Vietnam's stock market is experiencing a period of low liquidity, with analysts pointing to a lack of consensus on macroeconomic factors and persistent external uncertainties as key reasons. While domestic economic growth prospects offer some optimism, global risks such as geopolitical tensions and commodity price fluctuations are creating an environment of caution among investors.

Hồ Hữu Tuấn Hiếu, an analyst at SSI Securities, noted that market liquidity is not solely dependent on positive macroeconomic signals but crucially on the alignment of factors influencing the market. "What the market needs are not just positive variables, but variables moving in the same direction, helping investors gain a clearer picture of the future outlook," Hiếu stated. This uncertainty leads large capital flows to remain on the sidelines rather than making substantial investments, contributing to the subdued trading volume despite a relatively positive VN-Index performance.

Brokerage firms are advising investors to proceed with caution. BIDV Securities (BSC) observed that while buying interest helped the VN-Index rebound, low liquidity indicates ongoing market uncertainty. They recommend maintaining a cautious trading tâm thế. ACB Securities (ACBS) noted an improvement in buying demand and increased liquidity, suggesting a more active market participation. ACBS anticipates the VN-Index may continue its recovery towards the resistance level of 1,860 points in the short term.

Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS) believes the market has found balance and is recovering well around the 1,800-point mark. However, they highlight that liquidity only increased during sharp price drops and then decreased as the index recovered. This pattern suggests that capital primarily enters at lower price levels, and selling pressure might increase as the index approaches resistance zones. SHS advises investors to limit chasing rallies and maintain a balanced portfolio, as liquidity has not shown clear improvement, and the market remains within a downward trend that began in May 2026.