VN-Index Expected to Recover to 1,840 as Macroeconomic Signals Improve

Vietnam’s benchmark stock index is being tipped for a quick return to 1,840 points after a modest decline, but analysts are warning investors not to mistake a technical rebound for a risk-free advance.

The VN-Index ended Sept. 3 at 1,827.72, down 4.4 points, or 0.24%. Selling spread across large-cap banking, financial and retail shares. Foreign investors resumed net selling of more than 1.5 trillion dong, concentrated in VCB, VPB, TCB and VIC.

Vietcap said the index had recovered from around 1,800 and closed above its five-session moving average, suggesting that upward momentum still dominated late in the session. Yuanta Vietnam also expected a recovery toward 1,840 and kept its short-term outlook positive. Both firms identified 1,800 as an important support zone.

Trading value remained below its 20-session average. That pointed to weaker money flows, although selling pressure had not become especially intense. TPS said the index had broken above a declining trend line and its moving-average system, giving the uptrend a solid technical base. Still, it said the market might need several more sessions to build momentum.

TPS maintained a positive view for the coming weeks but did not recommend buying into rallies. HSC advised investors to keep stock exposure at reasonable levels, limit high leverage and favor shares with strong relative performance, supportive flows and solid fundamentals. Yuanta recommended that short-term investors use rallies to reduce exposure, particularly in leveraged portfolios.

Economic figures offered additional support. August industrial production rose 14.4% year on year, bringing growth for the first eight months to 11.9%. Retail sales increased 14.9%, international visitors approached 2 million for the month, and exports rose 26% to $54.8 billion. Imports grew 37.9% to $54.9 billion.