War experts: Large-scale combined strike from Russia increasingly likely

Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted critical Russian logistics infrastructure, including a strategically important railway hub in Vyazma and a major oil products storage facility in Rybinsk, approximately 720 km from the contact line. The Rybinsk facility reportedly held strategic oil reserves, and the attack on the "Azot" chemical industry plant in Novomoskovsk, which produces explosives, further disrupts Russian military capabilities.

The Vyazma railway hub, located about 330 km from the front lines in the Smolensk region, is vital for Russian supply routes. It connects to various regions, including Leningrad Oblast, Yaroslavl (Rybinsk), and Moscow, and branches out towards Smolensk and further south towards Bryansk and the rear of Russian forces operating in the direction of Sumy and Kharkiv. These strikes appear to be a well-coordinated operation to sever Russian supply lines.

Meanwhile, military analysts observe a concerning trend: Russia has consistently reduced the intensity of its attacks, potentially conserving resources for a significant, large-scale combined strike. This strategic shift is seen as a dangerous signal, especially following recent successful Ukrainian strikes deep within Russian territory.

Fighting continues across multiple fronts. In the Kharkiv region, the intensity of combat has decreased. In the Luhansk region, particularly around Kupyansk, clashes are minimal, with reconnaissance, drone, and artillery units being more active. Intense and fluctuating battles persist in the Donetsk region, especially on the western and eastern outskirts of Kostiantynivka. Ukrainian forces also struck targets in Ilovaisk, a key railway hub. In the southern sector, increased Russian attempts to cross the Dnipro islands are being reported.