Warsaw Apartment Prices to Rise 10-15% in Two Years, Says Victoria Dom Vice President

Victoria Dom, a developer active in Warsaw, Krakow, and the Tri-City area, is sticking to its sales goal of 1,650 to 1,750 units for 2026. This target represents a substantial increase from the 1,370 units sold in 2025, which was already a 35% rise from the previous year. The company's performance is contingent on a stable macroeconomic environment. In the first quarter, Victoria Dom sold 424 units, a 54% increase year-on-year, though slightly down from the fourth quarter of 2025. Sales in April and May were described as "very optimistic" by Vice President Waldemar Wasiluk.

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In the short term, there is pressure related to the conflict in the Middle East, fears of inflation, and rising prices of petroleum products. In the longer term – mainly cost and low availability of land, protracted administrative procedures.

Wasiluk anticipates that apartment prices in Warsaw will increase by 10-15% over the next two years. This projection stems from rising construction costs, pressure from the Middle East conflict affecting oil prices, and inflation concerns. In the longer term, the primary drivers will be the cost and scarcity of land, coupled with lengthy administrative procedures. The developer specializes in the "popular segment," often locating projects on city outskirts, making clients sensitive to the mortgage market.

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In the next two years, prices in Warsaw could increase by 10-15%.

Victoria Dom holds land reserves for 12,000 apartments and has ongoing and planned projects in Julianów, near Piaseczno. Wasiluk noted that the "Warsaw belt" is expanding as land within the capital becomes scarce. The company might launch new investments in surrounding towns, but currently focuses on the "far outskirts" of the capital. Their strategy aims for annual sales of around 2,000 units, positioning them as a focused developer rather than competing with the largest players.

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The Warsaw belt is opening up, with a lack of land in the capital itself.

The company is also preparing a new bond issuance program valued at 0.5 billion Polish zloty, approved by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority. Wasiluk stated the goal is to roll over existing, more expensive bonds rather than increase overall debt, though they will remain flexible for potential land acquisitions. While Victoria Dom is observing new markets, including Łódź, no definitive expansion decisions have been made yet. New bond issuances are expected no earlier than autumn.

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Our strategy is to be a developer with sales of around 2,000 units per year, we are not competing with the largest.