We said it in 2024: Stagflation was not a risk but a direction. Now Romania’s statistics office has stamped it

The latest figures from Romania’s National Institute of Statistics offer the confirmation the author says economic analysts would rather have avoided. Second-quarter GDP remained unchanged from the previous quarter, but fell 0.4% from the same period a year earlier on the raw series and 2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the first half of the year, the contraction reached 0.7% in raw terms and 1.6% after adjustment.

The article presents the data not as a surprise, but as the latest confirmation of warnings made since 2024. In November 2025, the author described Romania as already entering stagflation, with growth close to zero and high inflation. After the statistics office reported real growth of 0.7% for 2025, the author said the phenomenon had become reality. Later warnings described the country’s investment climate as an “investment ice age.”

The article focuses on a figure it says received too little attention. Second-quarter GDP reached 494.4 billion lei, 10.8% above the second quarter of 2025 in nominal terms but 0.4% lower in real terms. The GDP deflator stood at 11.2%, which the author interprets as showing that the increase in the economy’s value came from prices rather than production.

The sector figures reinforce that argument. Industry volume fell 4.2% while prices rose 15.1%. Real-estate transactions fell 6.8% in volume as prices increased 23.1%. Trade, transport and hospitality, which together account for 21.6% of GDP, lost 4.5% in volume while prices rose 9.6%. Household consumption fell 3.1% in volume and cost 10.7% more.

The article’s conclusion is stark: Romania is producing less while charging more. It argues that institutional recognition of the problem came only after earlier opportunities to respond had narrowed.