What impact will the new EU asylum law CEAS really have?

A significant reform to asylum law across the European Union and Germany, the new Common European Asylum System (CEAS), took effect Friday, aiming to expedite procedures for individuals from countries with low asylum acceptance rates. The system mandates preliminary screening at the EU's external borders.

Under the new rules, asylum seekers from nations such as Pakistan, Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Nigeria, where recognition rates are below 20%, will be subjected to accelerated border procedures within largely closed camps. This contrasts with applicants from countries like Afghanistan and Syria, who have higher recognition rates and will continue to undergo regular asylum procedures in their first EU country of arrival.

“

Actually, it has always been the case that the countries where asylum seekers arrive first are responsible for processing their applications. It just hasn't worked out that way. Why should it work now?

However, immigration expert Gerald Knaus, founder of the European Stability Initiative, expresses skepticism about the CEAS's efficacy. He questions whether deportations will become easier, predicting that rejected asylum seekers may simply move to other EU countries. Knaus points out that the system relies on the principle of first-arrival countries processing applications, a mechanism that has historically struggled to function effectively. He also notes that countries not on the EU's external border, such as Germany and Austria, have historically processed a significant portion of asylum applications, suggesting this trend may continue regardless of the new law.

Knaus believes that the number of asylum applications will be more influenced by developments in the asylum seekers' countries of origin than by EU legislation. He cites the declining exodus of Syrians following regime change as an example. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt, however, anticipates that the CEAS will facilitate the transfer of asylum seekers to their initial EU entry point, supported by a provision for "mandatory solidarity" among member states to share processing responsibilities.

“

If the fall of the Assad regime brings an end to the exodus of Syrians entering the EU, then the number of asylum applications in Germany and Austria will also drop dramatically. That had nothing to do with the interior minister, nor does it have anything to do with CEAS, nor does it have anything to do with border controls.