When Does Peace Become the Rule Rather Than the Exception?

The title itself, "When Does Peace become the Rule Rather than the Exception?", poses a profound question that resonates deeply with the current global climate. Asharq Al-Awsat observes a world seemingly adrift, where the established international order, built on consensus and multilateralism, is giving way to a logic of "might makes right." This transition is not merely a theoretical shift; it is manifesting in the actions of various powers seeking to expand their influence and control over resources, often through coercive means rather than diplomatic agreements.

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peace is not merely the absence of war but a virtue, a state of mind, a disposition for benevolence, confidence, justice.

This emerging global order, as described, is one where "empires of varying scale" vie for dominance. The emphasis shifts from cooperation and equal footing for all states, regardless of size, to a more Darwinian struggle for power and wealth. The article rightly points out that the post-World War II order, which brought a period of relative global stability and unprecedented prosperity, is now facing unprecedented challenges. The sense of crisis and global unease is a direct consequence of this erosion of established norms and the rise of a more fragmented and potentially volatile international landscape.

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peace cannot be kept by force; it can only be achieved by understanding.

Reflecting on historical patterns, the article starkly reminds us that peace has historically been a fragile state, an exception rather than the norm. With only a fraction of recorded history free from major wars, the inherent tendency towards conflict is undeniable. This historical perspective is crucial for understanding the present. It suggests that the current anxieties are not unfounded but are rooted in a long-standing reality of human relations, both individual and collective.

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Over roughly 3,500 to 5,000 years of recorded human history, the world has seen only about 230 to 268 years entirely free of major wars, less than 10 percent of its history.

From the perspective of Asharq Al-Awsat, this analysis is particularly relevant. We are witnessing firsthand the complexities of a world grappling with shifting power dynamics. While Western media often focuses on specific geopolitical flashpoints, our coverage aims to provide a broader, more historical context. The question of when peace will prevail over conflict is not just an academic exercise; it is a fundamental concern for societies in regions like the Middle East, where stability has often been elusive. Understanding the underlying forces driving this new global order, and recognizing the historical prevalence of conflict, is essential for navigating the path towards a more sustainable and just peace, one that is built on justice, confidence, and benevolence, as Spinoza envisioned, rather than solely on the shifting sands of power.

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The global order that emerged after the Second World War achieved notable successes. The likelihood of large-scale global wars declined, traditional empires with vast geographic reach came to an end, and levels of welfare and prosperity rose to unprecedented levels.