White House Sees 85% Chance of Historic Deal with Iran on Nuclear Program and Strait of Hormuz

The White House has indicated a high probability, estimated at 80-85%, of reaching a historic agreement with Iran. This optimism stems from a preliminary 60-day memorandum of understanding that, if finalized, could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A senior U.S. administration official detailed the proposed deal, emphasizing that while both nations are not yet at the finish line, they are very close. The agreement is structured around four key pillars: opening the Strait of Hormuz and ending its blockade, dismantling Iran's nuclear program with the transfer of enriched uranium to the U.S., establishing long-term regional peace, and implementing an inspection regime to verify commitments. In return, Iran would receive phased sanctions relief and reintegration into the global economy. The U.S. official stressed that Iran would not receive economic benefits until their obligations are met, stating, "I don't trust that they will uphold the agreement. I do trust, however, that we have constructed it in such a way that they will not get their benefits until we get ours." Iran would also commit indefinitely to not acquiring nuclear weapons. While the exact date and location for signing the agreement have not been announced, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also confirmed that an agreement has never been closer. He urged against speculation, stating all details would be made public in due course. The U.S. official also noted that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is reportedly satisfied with the current stage of negotiations, a sentiment echoed by contacts within Iran's civilian and military leadership.

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We are not yet at the finish line, but we are very close to it.