Why are so many major earthquakes happening in 2026?
Translated from Indonesian, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.
At a glance
- A series of powerful earthquakes in 2026 has prompted questions about whether the Earth is experiencing unusual seismic activity.
- Geologists state that while the recent events have been destructive and headline-grabbing, the number of major earthquakes this year is statistically within the normal range.
- Factors like cognitive biases and aftershocks can contribute to the perception of increased earthquake frequency.
The year 2026 has seen a notable cluster of powerful earthquakes striking various regions, including Indonesia, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, and Venezuela, leading many to question if seismic activity is on the rise.
However, geologists emphasize that despite the dramatic nature of these events, the current pattern aligns with historical averages. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that approximately 20,000 earthquakes are recorded globally each year, with about 15 to 18 typically measuring between magnitude 7.0 and 7.9. As of August 2026, ten such major earthquakes have occurred, placing the year toward the lower end of the expected range.
While it may feel like earthquakes are happening more frequently, 2026 has been a fairly normal year statistically.
Geologist Wendy Bohon explains that what makes this year stand out is not an increase in frequency but rather the significant damage caused by several recent quakes. These destructive events naturally capture more public attention and dominate headlines, creating a perception of heightened activity.
What stands out... is that several recent earthquakes have caused significant damage, making them more likely to dominate headlines and public attention.
Bohon also points to cognitive biases, such as recency bias and the "frequency illusion," as factors that can influence our perception. We tend to place more importance on recent events and notice things more often once they've come to our attention, making earthquakes seem more prevalent than the statistical data suggests.
Earthquakes themselves are caused by the sudden slip of tectonic plates along faults, releasing energy that causes the ground to shake. When earthquakes occur in close succession, they are often aftershocks of a larger mainshock. Many earthquakes happen constantly but go unnoticed because they occur in remote areas or beneath the ocean.
Recency bias causes people to place greater importance on recent events than on long-term data. The 'frequency illusion,' also known as the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, causes people to notice something more often after they have recently become aware of it.
Originally published by Tempo in Indonesian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.