Why Armenia's elections attract attention from Russia, EU, and US

Armenia's parliamentary elections on June 7 have become a focal point for international powers, drawing significant attention from Russia, the European Union, and the United States, a level of interest previously unseen for the nation's polls. This heightened focus stems from Armenia's evolving geopolitical stance, particularly its growing aspirations to join the EU and its cooling relations with Russia, its traditional ally since the Soviet Union's collapse.

For decades, Armenia has been a key Russian partner in the South Caucasus, hosting a Russian military base and maintaining deep economic and cultural ties. However, recent events, including Russia's perceived inaction during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and subsequent incursions by Azerbaijan into Armenian territory, have strained the relationship. This has led Armenia to freeze its participation in post-Soviet military blocs and begin diversifying its military acquisitions, notably purchasing arms from countries like France and India.

Politically, Armenia is also seeking new alliances, moving closer to Brussels and Washington. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has stated that his government's actions are not intended to harm historical ties with Russia, but many experts question the future of the relationship. The election is expected to confirm Armenia's policy of diversifying its international relations, further distancing it from Moscow's influence.

The EU and the US, once largely on the sidelines of the South Caucasus, now see the region's strategic importance, particularly for transit routes between Asia and Europe. While the EU has developed pragmatic ties with Azerbaijan and established strong links with Georgia, Armenia is emerging as a natural ally for Europe in the region, despite its landlocked geography. The election's outcome will likely shape Armenia's trajectory, potentially marking a significant shift in its foreign policy and its place on the international stage.