Why Coffee Prices Soared Globally But Rose Moderately in Lithuania

While global raw coffee prices have seen a sharp increase, Lithuanian consumers have experienced a more moderate rise in the cost of coffee products. Data from the Agricultural Data Center (ŽŪDC) shows that the global price of raw Arabica coffee jumped from 5.20 to 7.48 euros per kilogram between 2024 and 2025, a nearly 44% surge. However, the average price of coffee products on Lithuanian store shelves increased by only 7.4%, from 16.63 to 17.87 euros per kilogram.

Several factors are driving up global coffee prices. Dr. Irma Jankauskienė, head of the Market Information and Economic Analysis Department at ŽŪDC, explained that unfavorable weather conditions in key coffee-producing nations like Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia have negatively impacted harvest expectations. Coupled with dwindling reserves and sustained high demand, fears of scarcity have begun to push up raw material prices.

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Unfavorable weather conditions in such important coffee-growing countries as Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia have worsened harvest expectations, reserves in the market have decreased, and demand has remained high. When there is a fear that there may be less coffee, the price of raw materials begins to rise even before the buyer in the store feels it.

The discrepancy between global raw material costs and retail prices in Lithuania can be attributed to several elements. The final price of coffee on store shelves includes not only the cost of beans but also roasting, grinding, packaging, transportation, storage, VAT, retailer margins, and brand pricing. Furthermore, supply contracts often mean that stores purchase coffee based on earlier prices, creating a lag effect when global prices fluctuate.

Dr. Evaldas Stankevičius, senior economist at ŽŪDC, noted that consumer behavior also influences average price statistics. As coffee prices rise, some consumers remain loyal to their preferred brands, while others switch to cheaper alternatives or wait for sales. This adaptation can make the overall price increase appear smaller than what some individual consumers experience. However, early 2026 data offers cautious optimism, with the average price of analyzed coffee products in Lithuania dropping by about 12% compared to the 2025 average.

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The average price of coffee reflects not only how prices have changed but also how buyers have adapted. If a favorite coffee becomes more expensive, some still buy it, others choose a cheaper one, and a third group waits for a sale. Therefore, the overall average may show a smaller change than what some buyers experience.