Why Iran’s real war begins when the bombing ends

Iran is fighting a dual conflict, facing both immediate military strikes and an impending, potentially more damaging, "aftermath war" of economic and social repercussions. The military campaign, which appears to align with Israeli strategic thinking aimed at regime change by targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its leadership, has not yielded the expected collapse.

Instead, the article argues that the strikes may have inadvertently strengthened the Iranian system. This is attributed to a fundamental misunderstanding of Shia political culture, where death in conflict is viewed not as defeat but as a source of legitimacy. The Islamic Republic has institutionalized this concept, turning fallen commanders into heroes and reinforcing the narrative of martyrdom, a mechanism of regime resilience.

The failure to account for these cultural dynamics, particularly highlighted by the mass mobilization following Qassem Soleimani's killing in 2020, suggests a critical flaw in the planning. The article posits that military superiority alone is insufficient when cultural intelligence is not central to strategy, potentially leading to a longer and more difficult struggle for Iran in the aftermath of the current military engagements.