Why political optimism has become scarce in Australia

What a despairing mob we have become. Australia’s latest national accounts offer little relief to voters already feeling trapped by the cost of living and a loss of faith in the country’s direction.

One measure captures the gloom particularly well: real net national disposable income per person. The Australian Bureau of Statistics describes it as the income people have left to spend or save after inflation, and says it reflects lived prosperity more accurately than real GDP.

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That measure fell 0.4% in the June quarter from the previous three months. Compared with a year earlier, it was unchanged. Over the past two years, it has either declined or barely moved, a sharp contrast with the steady gains seen through most of the past half-century, apart from periods such as the early 1990s recession and the post-global financial crisis stagnation of the early and mid-2010s.

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This is a broader measure of prosperity than the commonly cited measure of real GDP.

The shift helps explain why voters appear increasingly willing to try what Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called new and “dangerous” options. One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, is gaining momentum by tapping into that dark mood.

Public judgments of government have also deteriorated. An August JWS Research poll found that views of the national, state and territory economies were at their lowest since the question was first tested in 2013. State and territory governments were at their weakest level since early 2017, while assessments of the Albanese government were harsher than at any point during Scott Morrison’s prime ministership. The result is a political climate in which economic frustration and pessimism reinforce each other.

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It more accurately reflects the average lived experience and prosperity of Australians.