Why Rohingya Refugees Still Can't Return to Myanmar

Myanmar's military-backed government is again discussing the return of Rohingya refugees from camps in Bangladesh, with authorities in Naypyidaw claiming progress in verifying individuals for repatriation. The government stated it had verified approximately 308,000 out of 820,000 names submitted by Bangladesh as former residents.

However, these individuals will not be repatriated until security conditions improve in the civil war-torn Rakhine State. Analysts, however, suggest that large-scale, safe repatriation is now more distant than at any point since 2017. Myanmar is embroiled in a nationwide civil war, the military no longer controls most of Rakhine State, and the Rohingya are systematically denied citizenship.

The exodus of over 750,000 Rohingya to Bangladesh began in August 2017, following alleged attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) militant group. These refugees joined hundreds of thousands displaced by earlier crackdowns. Muslim-majority Bangladesh now hosts around 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, primarily in camps near Cox's Bazar.

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Safe repatriation is simply not possible.

Myanmar does not recognize the Rohingya as one of its 135 official ethnic groups, often referring to them as "Bengalis" to imply they are migrants from Bangladesh, despite many Rohingya families having lived in Rakhine for generations. UN investigators have found evidence of genocidal intent by Myanmar's military, and the United States has stated that military members committed genocide and crimes against humanity against the Rohingya.

A genocide case brought by The Gambia against Myanmar is ongoing at the International Court of Justice. The 2021 coup in Myanmar triggered a nationwide civil war that continues, even after a recent election that saw the formation of a civilian government largely dominated by military and junta officials. Ronan Lee, a researcher at Loughborough University and author of "Myanmar's Rohingya Genocide," stated that safe repatriation is "simply not possible" under current conditions, citing the civil war and collapsed economy. He warned that returning Rohingya would face a high risk of violence from the military, making life in Myanmar more dangerous than when they were forcibly deported in 2017.

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Myanmar's government is dominated by the same military that genocidally deported the Rohingya in 2017. Life in Myanmar today would be more dangerous for the Rohingya than when they were forcibly deported in 2017.