Why the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation isn’t Nato for Iran

Central Asia is demonstrating a clear shift towards China as geopolitical uncertainties deepen, reshaping the strategic orientation of the former Soviet states. As Kyrgyzstan prepares to host the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in August, the ongoing US-Iran conflict is presenting a significant test for the bloc's ability to navigate a major external crisis involving a member state without compromising its core principles.

While some observers have anticipated the SCO might adopt a strong, unified stance, analysts suggest such expectations are unrealistic. This is not due to the bloc's ineffectiveness, but rather because its foundational design inherently prioritizes restraint. Iran's accession as a full member in July 2023 marked a significant development, with the country viewing the China and Russia-led bloc as a crucial platform to escape diplomatic isolation imposed by Western economic sanctions.

However, Iran's heightened tensions with the United States and Israel have introduced uncertainty into the SCO's regional agenda. The conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, even as a fragile ceasefire mediated by Pakistan enters its eighth week. This complex geopolitical landscape challenges the SCO's capacity for decisive action.

Adding another layer to the regional dynamics, U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly stated that Chinese President Xi Jinping offered assistance regarding Iran, particularly as China aims to maintain open passage through the Strait of Hormuz. According to an Axios report, Washington and Tehran have tentatively agreed on a memorandum of understanding to extend the current ceasefire by 60 days and facilitate formal negotiations, though Trump's final approval is still pending.

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Trump says Xi offered help on Iran as China seeks to keep Hormuz open