Why Trump’s proposal for Syria to fight Hezbollah will send shudders across Lebanon

A proposal by former U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting Syria should confront Hezbollah has sent ripples of anxiety across Lebanon. Trump's idea, which he has raised twice this month, touches upon deep-seated fears in Lebanon regarding Syria's historical interference and the jihadist background of Syria's current leadership.

Syria maintained a significant military presence in Lebanon for nearly three decades, initially deploying as peacekeepers in 1976 but remaining long after the civil war ended. This prolonged presence is viewed by many Lebanese as an occupation, marked by thousands of disappearances and deaths, which have fostered distrust and complicated relations between the two nations. Any resurgence of Syrian intervention in Lebanon is expected to be highly unpopular.

Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shiite group, previously supported former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian civil war, securing vital arms supply routes from Iran and Iraq. This alliance was based on shared opposition to Israel and alignment with Iran. However, the dynamic shifted with the fall of Assad and the rise of President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda figure who has distanced himself from Iran-backed groups and pursued a more westward-leaning policy, earning praise from Trump.

Michael Young, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center, described the idea as "completely absurd" and a potential "Pandora's Box." He warned that the sectarian implications are particularly risky, potentially dividing Lebanon and leading to disaster. The prospect of Syrian troops, many with alleged ties to Islamist and jihadist factions accused of atrocities, entering Lebanon could destabilize the country's complex multi-sectarian society, which includes a large Christian population. This is concerning even for groups who oppose Hezbollah but would likely prefer it over Syrian intervention.

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The sectarian dimension here is very risky. It would divide Lebanon and be a disaster. I think it’s too much of a Pandora’s Box. He (Sharaa) would be making a big mistake if he did it.