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Wildfire risk surges in Southern Europe, study finds
🇦🇹 Austria /Disasters & Emergencies

Wildfire risk surges in Southern Europe, study finds

From Die Presse · () German

Translated from German, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • The risk of wildfires in Southern Europe has significantly increased, with a doubling of summer days featuring high fire risk since 1981, according to a new study.
  • Despite the heightened risk, the number of fires and the area burned in Southern Europe have decreased in the past decade due to improved wildfire management.
  • Researchers suggest that while better management reduces smaller fires, it leads to fuel accumulation, potentially causing rarer but more intense megafires exacerbated by climate change.

Southern Europe is entering an era of extreme fire danger, with a new study revealing a dramatic increase in summer days posing a high wildfire risk. Since 1981, these high-risk days have doubled across large parts of the Iberian Peninsula, France, Italy, and Greece. The study, published in "Scientific Reports," highlights that "fire weather" conditions, characterized by high temperatures, low humidity, drought, and strong winds, are becoming more frequent due to climate change.

The Iberian Peninsula shows a particularly pronounced rise in these extreme conditions. In some areas of Portugal and Spain, fewer than ten summer days per year experienced these hot, dry, and windy conditions between 1981 and 2010. However, the past decade has seen up to 25 such extreme summer days.

The region appears to be entering an era of extreme fire danger.

— Raúl CorderoCo-author of the study from the University of Groningen, describing the trend of increased wildfire risk.

Surprisingly, the study also found fewer fires and smaller burned areas in Southern Europe over the last decade (2016-2025) compared to earlier periods. This is attributed to improvements in wildfire management, including better training for firefighters, more water-dropping aircraft, enhanced firebreaks, and improved public awareness.

Europe is seeing a trend toward more intense and larger events.

— Study authorsConcluding remarks on the evolving nature of wildfires in Europe.

However, the authors caution that while improved firefighting tactics have reduced the average number and size of fires, they have also led to a buildup of combustible material. This, combined with climate change-driven weather patterns, increases the likelihood of less frequent but more severe and uncontrollable "megafires." For instance, Spain recorded significantly larger burned areas in 2022 and 2025 than the annual average from 1981 to 2010.

To combat these intensifying events, the study suggests targeted, controlled vegetation burns and a strategy of moderate, rather than maximal, fire suppression. "Europe is seeing a trend toward more intense and larger events," the study concludes, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to protect people and landscapes.

Wildfires have always existed. But today they are additionally fueled by climate change.

— Peter HorneDirector of the climate research center Icarus, commenting on the impact of climate change on wildfires.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Die Presse in German. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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