Will Canadians buy U.S. alcohol if it returns to shelves?

The potential return of American alcohol to Canadian provincial shelves hinges on the finalization of a trade deal with the United States, a move aimed at averting further U.S. tariffs. This issue has been a significant point of contention, with U.S. President Donald Trump labeling provincial boycotts as "discriminatory measures."

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Whether Nova Scotians or Canadians will actually buy it when it gets back on, that’s a whole other discussion.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has reportedly asked provincial premiers, including Nova Scotia's Tim Houston, to restock American alcohol as Canada works to finalize the trade agreement. This request comes after several Canadian provinces removed U.S. alcohol from their shelves in 2025, following U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. Currently, most provinces, with the exception of Alberta and Saskatchewan, do not offer U.S. alcohol.

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It really depends on what kind of deal the government secures with the administration. If they perceive the deal to be not as great, they might continue to just not buy U.S. alcohol from the shelves.

Despite the potential return of U.S. products, consumer behavior remains uncertain. Houston noted that it's "a whole other discussion" whether Canadians will actually purchase American liquor once it's available again. Survey data from Abacus Data reveals that a significant majority of Canadians (69%) in key provinces want restrictions on American alcohol to remain. Only 19% expressed a desire for U.S. products to return to shelves.

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We recognize that U.S. wines would come back at some point in time, but we hope that the Buy Canadian mentality will continue and the growth will continue.

Retail analyst Bruce Winder suggests that Canadian attitudes are linked to the Trump administration's actions. Even in provinces that still stock U.S. alcohol, sales have reportedly slowed. Winder emphasized that consumer purchasing decisions will likely depend on the perceived fairness of the trade deal. Dan Paszkowski, president and CEO of Wine Growers Canada, highlighted that the 18 months without U.S. alcohol have allowed Canadians to discover domestic options, fostering a "Buy Canadian" mentality. The industry aims to increase its market share from 30% to 50%, and Paszkowski hopes this momentum will continue even if U.S. wines return.

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We don’t want to lose what we’ve gained. Our target is to have a 50 per cent market share. We only have 30 per cent right now.