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Will Gold Prices Fall or Rise? Major Banks Issue Forecasts
🇹🇷 Turkey /Economy & Trade

Will Gold Prices Fall or Rise? Major Banks Issue Forecasts

From Cumhuriyet · () Turkish

Translated from Turkish, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • Major investment banks have revised their gold price forecasts amid global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies.
  • Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, citing sustained central bank purchases as a key support.
  • HSBC anticipates short-term volatility but expects a rebound later in the year due to ETF inflows, central bank buying, and portfolio diversification.

The global economy is navigating a period of unprecedented stress, with geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and central banks' fight against inflation shaping market dynamics. High interest rates and a strong dollar have left investors balancing the search for safe havens with their appetite for returns. In this complex environment, gold, a barometer of global anxiety, is seeking a new equilibrium. Five major Wall Street investment banks have recalibrated their outlooks for the precious metal.

Central banks will push prices up.

— Goldman SachsThe bank's outlook on the factors supporting gold prices.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that ongoing central bank purchases remain gold's strongest support, despite short-term pressure from high interest rates. Analyst Lina Thomas points to a record 81 tons of gold purchased in May and a threefold increase in the three-month average compared to pre-2022 levels. The bank projects this trend of reserve diversification, led by emerging economies, will continue for years, maintaining its year-end 2026 target for gold at $4,900 per ounce.

HSBC notes that gold has recently moved in parallel with stocks, partially departing from its traditional "safe haven" role after reaching a historic peak of $5,598 in late January. The bank expects a range-bound movement in the short term, as rising U.S. bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, HSBC forecasts a renewed upward momentum towards the end of the year, driven by inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), central bank acquisitions, and demand for portfolio diversification.

Tightness in the short term, rise in the long term.

— HSBCHSBC's forecast for gold prices.

Bernstein revised its average price forecast for 2026 upward to $4,533, despite gold's retreat to $4,000 by late June from $4,650 in early April, due to increasing real interest rates. The bank believes U.S. President Donald Trump's inclination towards lower interest rates limits expectations for aggressive monetary tightening. Saxo Bank's Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole Hansen, anticipates gold will trade between $3,950 and $4,200 in the short term. Prices briefly exceeded $4,100 following U.S. inflation data but retreated due to concerns over tight monetary policy stemming from geopolitical risks and rising oil prices, pulling gold back towards the $4,000 mark. Hansen highlighted that statements from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh maintain uncertainty.

A fluctuation around $4,000 is expected.

— Saxo BankSaxo Bank's short-term price prediction for gold.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Cumhuriyet in Turkish. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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