Will Indonesia's Rice Production Decline This Year?

Indonesia's rice production could see a slight decline this year, with an estimated drop of 0.2 percent, or about 80,000 tons, according to Amran Sulaiman, head of the National Food Agency (Bapanas). He noted that last year's production resulted in a surplus of 4 million tons, and he anticipates a surplus will persist over a two-year period.

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Last year, [rice production] recorded a surplus of 4 million tons. Let's assume that by the end of the year we will see a 0.2 percent decline, approximately 80 thousand tons.

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data projects a decrease of 0.08 million tons in rice production from January to July 2026 compared to the same period last year. However, Sulaiman emphasized that this projected decrease is minimal when compared to the significant production increase observed in the previous year.

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[Still] a surplus of 4 million across two years.

Meanwhile, the agency reported 5.17 million tons of rice reserves in Bulog warehouses as of June 23. This includes domestically produced rice and stock carried over from 2025. Despite these reserves, concerns have been raised regarding the quality and age of the stored rice. Siti Hediati Hariyadi, Chair of House Commission IV, urged Minister Amran not to store rice older than six months. She highlighted that a significant portion of the stock, particularly in East Java, is discolored or over a year old.

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You have a stock of 5 million, but 1.5 million tons are discolored rice.

Hariyadi also pressed for swift distribution of rice from Bulog warehouses to prevent spoilage and ensure accessibility. In response, Amran stated he had summoned the Bulog Board of Directors, who then documented the damaged rice, amounting to approximately 3,619 tons in the Madura warehouse. The agency is working to address these quality concerns while ensuring sufficient supply.

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There were about 3,619 tons of damaged rice in the Bulog warehouse in Madura.