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🇮🇩 Indonesia /Environment & Climate

WMO predicts El Niño will strengthen and peak late this year

From Republika · () Indonesian

Translated from Indonesian and summarized by DistantNews. Read the original for the full story.

At a glance

Explainer Named sources Ongoing story
  • The World Meteorological Organization says the current El Niño could strengthen to “very strong” levels and has a 100% chance of lasting through February 2027.
  • The climate pattern is linked to higher risks of heatwaves, flooding and drought, although impacts will vary by region.
  • Scientists are monitoring unusually warm Pacific waters alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and warm Atlantic conditions, making local effects harder to predict.

The World Meteorological Organization predicts that the ongoing El Niño will continue strengthening, reach the “very strong” category and peak near the end of the year. The pattern could increase the risk of heatwaves, floods and droughts across different parts of the world.

The WMO puts the probability of El Niño continuing through February 2027 at 100 percent. It is the first time the United Nations weather agency has issued a forecast with such a high level of certainty. Warm water stored beneath the Pacific Ocean could help sustain the phenomenon in the coming months.

Sea-surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific were as much as 8 degrees Celsius above normal in July and early August. The Niño 3.4 index showed tropical Pacific waters 1.5 degrees above normal from May through July, rising to 2 degrees in July. Weekly readings from late July to mid-August reached 2.6 degrees above normal, while subsurface heat continued to build.

A very strong El Niño will not bring disasters of equal severity everywhere. Forecasters expect global surface temperatures to remain above normal from September through November, while rainfall patterns shift. Some areas could face heavy rain and flooding, and others increased drought risk. The effects are harder to assess because El Niño coincides with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and unusually warm Atlantic waters.

“ El Niño is growing before our eyes. Science leaves no room for doubt: our planet has entered uncharted territory and is getting hotter,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, according to UN News. El Niño is a natural climate pattern that typically develops every two to seven years when central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters warm. This event is unfolding alongside human-driven global warming, which can amplify some effects, although scientists have not fully concluded that climate change increases El Niño’s intensity.

El Niño is growing before our eyes. Science leaves no room for doubt: our planet has entered uncharted territory and is getting hotter

· Antonio GuterresThe UN secretary-general warned about the strengthening climate pattern and broader global warming.
About this summary

Originally published by Republika in Indonesian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized automatically by DistantNews, with a note on how the source frames the story. Not individually reviewed before publishing. How this works.

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