WMO sees nearly 100% chance El Niño will last through February 2027

The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño has firmly taken hold and is likely to intensify into a “very strong” event, with an almost 100% chance of lasting through February 2027.

The forecast gives the phenomenon an unusually clear trajectory. The WMO said this was the first time one of its updates had been “so unequivocal,” reflecting strong agreement among forecasting centres. El Niño is expected to peak toward the end of this year, while its effects on rainfall and temperatures could continue into 2027.

The tropical Pacific is providing strong evidence of further intensification. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are well above average and still rising. The Niño 3.4 index increased from 1.5°C above normal during May to July 2026 and 2°C in July, reaching between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above normal from late July to mid-August.

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Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Niño will persist through to February 2027.

Subsurface conditions are even more pronounced. In some areas, ocean temperatures below the surface were more than 8°C above average during July and early August. Together, the surface and subsurface readings support the expectation that El Niño will continue strengthening.

For India, experts said the event could bring a milder winter and less rainfall for Rabi crops. Mahesh Palawat of Skymet said it could affect the northeast monsoon and increase the risk of a warmer-than-normal winter. If it continues into early 2027, he said, India could face a warmer pre-monsoon season and more heatwaves. He also cautioned that the Indian Ocean Dipole, snow cover, local sea temperatures and other atmospheric factors will help determine the final impact.

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It can alter rainfall distribution and raise temperatures.