Yilan County's school-aged population may plummet over 40% in six years; teachers' union proposes reforms

Yilan County, Taiwan, is bracing for a significant demographic shift, with projections indicating a sharp decline of over 40% in its school-aged population within the next six years. The Yilan Teachers' Union has sounded the alarm, forecasting that first-grade enrollment will plummet from 3,004 students in the 2027 academic year to fewer than 1,800 by 2032. This drastic reduction, exceeding 40% in just six years, is attributed to the ongoing "low birth rate tsunami."

The Teachers' Union is appealing to candidates in the upcoming county magistrate elections to implement crucial educational reforms. Their core proposals include adopting a "large schools promote small classes, small schools guarantee manpower" strategy. Specifically, they advocate for immediately reducing class sizes in large elementary and junior high schools to a maximum of 25 students, with a phased goal of achieving classes of 20. For smaller schools, the union calls for a fundamental shift in how teacher staffing is calculated, moving away from current formulas to one based on students' basic learning needs and the necessity of curriculum development.

Previously, Yilan County had implemented policies to lower the student-teacher ratio, such as capping junior high classes at 29 students and elementary classes at 28 starting in the 2021 academic year, aiming to maintain high educational quality. However, the union stresses that these measures are no longer sufficient against the harsh reality of declining birth rates. They warn that without decisive reforms by the new county magistrate, Yilan's education system faces a crisis of significant class reductions, teacher layoffs, and school mergers, potentially leading to the contraction of teaching staff and the collapse of administrative structures due to overload.