Zelenskyy Visits Vučić, Europe's Last Putin Ally: 'Ukrainians are fully aware of whom they are talking to'

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Serbia on Friday, marking his first visit to the country since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This bilateral visit by Zelenskyy to Serbia, a nation known for its traditionally close relationship with Russia and its non-adherence to Western sanctions against Moscow, opens a complex array of questions regarding Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić's diplomatic maneuvering.

Analysts are divided on Vučić's motives. Some interpret the visit as an attempt to signal to Western partners, particularly Germany, that Serbia is prepared to move closer to the West. However, this engagement comes with a significant caveat: Vučić aims to achieve this without imposing sanctions on Russia, a move that could alienate his largely pro-Russian domestic voter base. Others suggest the meeting could bolster Vučić's international standing while potentially causing friction at home.

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He was recently in Ukraine for a summit, but he refused to sign a declaration so as not to completely alienate Russia. He also wants his electorate, which is largely pro-Russian, not to see his moves. Therefore, they are meeting in August, when public attention is waning, although it will be difficult to hide Belgrade adorned with Ukrainian flags.

Vladimir Međak, an expert on European integration, told Nova.rs that the meeting has been in the works for some time. He believes a primary audience for this diplomatic signal is Germany. "Vučić has long been trying to send signals to the European Union, and primarily to Germany... that he is ready to completely turn to the West," Međak explained. However, he added that this is politically and personally risky for Vučić due to fear of Russia's reaction, necessitating more time, understanding, and assistance from European partners.

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Vučić has long been trying to send signals to the European Union, and primarily to Germany, that he is ready to completely turn to the West. But for him, this is politically and personally dangerous because he fears Russia's response and needs more time, understanding, and help.

Međak further elaborated that Vučić's strategy appears to be convincing European partners of his willingness to change course without actually implementing the expected policy shift of sanctioning Russia, especially with Serbian elections on the horizon. This visit, according to Međak, serves as a calculated move in that direction. He noted that while Vučić and Zelenskyy have met before, these encounters have typically occurred outside Serbia and away from public scrutiny.

"He was recently in Ukraine for a summit, but he refused to sign a declaration so as not to completely alienate Russia. He also wants his electorate, which is largely pro-Russian, not to see his moves," Međak stated. He suggested that the timing, with meetings planned for August when public attention wanes, is strategic, though concealing Belgrade's potential support for Ukraine, symbolized by Ukrainian flags, will be difficult. Međak even posited that Zelenskyy's choice to meet Vučić now is not coincidental, implying deeper strategic considerations behind the timing of this high-stakes diplomatic encounter.

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The intention is to convince the EU and Germany that he wants to do this, without actually doing what he must, which is to impose sanctions on Russia, especially not before the elections in Serbia. This is a good move for him in that direction.