A Surprise Winter May Be Coming to Greece: What the ECMWF Snow Map Shows

Greece may face a generally mild winter in 2026-27, with less snow than normal, according to the latest seasonal outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

The ECMWF map shows a negative snowfall anomaly across Greece for December, January and February. Yellow, orange and darker orange-red shades cover much of the country, indicating snowfall below the average for the reference climate period. The signal appears most clearly over mainland Greece, while negative deviations also extend across large parts of the Aegean.

Lowland and lower-elevation areas may have fewer opportunities for frequent snow. Even when organized storms bring substantial rainfall, temperatures may often remain too high for the precipitation to turn to snow at lower altitudes. The expected pattern is linked to more frequent westerly and southwesterly winds, carrying relatively mild, moist air from the Atlantic toward Europe and the Mediterranean. For Greece, that could mean considerable rain without a comparable frequency of snowfall, particularly in the lowlands.

The development of a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific could influence the wider atmospheric circulation and the position and behavior of the jet stream over Europe. Low pressure over the Atlantic and high-pressure ridges toward the Mediterranean could also produce a pattern that does not often bring very cold air masses into Greece.

The forecast does not mean Greece will have a winter without snow. ECMWF seasonal products show probabilities and average trends over a three-month period, not specific weather events. A warmer, less snowy winter could still include one or two powerful cold outbreaks, potentially bringing heavy snow even to low elevations. A major snowfall in Athens, Thessaloniki or elsewhere in the country therefore cannot be ruled out at this stage.