AfD benefits from high voter turnout in Saxony-Anhalt

The AfD benefited substantially from unusually high turnout in Saxony-Anhalt, gaining about 157,000 votes from people who had stayed home in the state election five years earlier. An ARD analysis also found that roughly 83,000 votes moved from the CDU to the AfD.

Turnout reached about 80%, according to ZDF, well above the 60.3% recorded in 2021. CDU Minister-President Sven Schulze said voters had sent a signal through their participation and that those responsible in the state and beyond now had to recognize and respond to it.

Early projections from ARD and ZDF placed the AfD at more than 44%, more than doubling its 2021 result. The CDU dropped to about 18.5%, roughly half its previous result. The Left was projected to become the third-largest parliamentary group with more than 9%, while the SPD and Greens were each expected to win between 8% and 9%.

The BSW stood near the five-percent threshold and still faced uncertainty over entering the state parliament. If it failed to qualify, an AfD government without coalition partners would become more likely. The FDP was projected to fall clearly below the threshold.

The preliminary distribution showed the AfD with 44.4%, the CDU with 18.2%, the Left with 9.2%, the Greens with 8.7% and the SPD with 8.6%. The BSW stood at 4.8% and the FDP at 2.4%. A majority required 42 seats, while the AfD alone was projected to hold 41.

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The people of Saxony-Anhalt have sent a signal with the high voter turnout.