Seven lessons from Saxony-Anhalt’s state election

The AfD came closer to power in Saxony-Anhalt than any party seeking to implement far-right policies has come in Germany’s postwar history. Exit polls indicated that it missed an absolute majority, but only narrowly.

If the projections held after counting, AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund would not have enough seats to elect himself minister-president. The shortfall appeared small. Before the election, the AfD had suggested that CDU lawmakers could defect if necessary. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, known as BSW, could also potentially help Siegmund take office.

A majority against the AfD would make governing difficult for the party. Lawmakers are regularly absent from votes, including because of illness, and the AfD could use such moments to gain a temporary advantage. The possibility of an AfD minority government being tolerated would also challenge the political firewall that excludes cooperation with the party.

The result is being viewed by some as a milestone in the AfD’s normalization. For a long time, many of its voters did not openly identify themselves. That appeared to change during the Saxony-Anhalt campaign, where supporters showed themselves more openly.

The election is expected to influence debates over the firewall and a possible ban procedure against the AfD. If the firewall remains in place, parties would not form majorities with the AfD. That would also rule out allowing an AfD minority government to govern through tolerance. A CDU minority government, meanwhile, could not pass laws with AfD support without weakening that principle.

The AfD’s strongest-ever performance in a state election reflected widespread dissatisfaction with established parties, as well as insecurity and fears of social decline, the article said. Siegmund may also have played a major role. The 35-year-old trained wholesale merchant and former room-fragrance salesman campaigned on becoming Germany’s youngest state premier.

His supporters filled town squares across Saxony-Anhalt, while Siegmund repeatedly posed for selfies. He brushed aside accusations about contacts with the far-right scene, and the approach appeared to resonate with many voters.

The final question of who will govern Saxony-Anhalt remained open while counting continued. An AfD minority government tolerated by the BSW was one possible outcome, provided the alliance itself cleared the five-percent threshold.