Africa Faces 86 Million Tonne Fuel Shortfall by 2040, Warns AFC Report

A stark warning has emerged from the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) regarding the continent's escalating fuel vulnerability. The AFC's latest report projects a significant shortfall of 86 million tonnes by 2040, a figure that underscores Africa's precarious reliance on imported refined fuels. This dependence, currently standing at over 70%, leaves the continent exposed to global supply chain disruptions, as vividly demonstrated by the impact of the Iran war on critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

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Not only is it importing fuel, but on the eastern side of the continent, those imports are vulnerable to chokepoints — we’ve all learned about the Strait of Hormuz this year, and it’s not the only chokepoint.

The report, launched in Nairobi, details that Africa imports approximately $230 billion worth of essential goods annually, including fuel, food, plastics, steel, and fertilizer. The vulnerability extends beyond fuel, with fertilizer shortages also posing a threat, particularly to East African nations. This situation is particularly ironic given Africa's substantial phosphate reserves, a key component in fertilizer production, yet the continent only accounts for 20% of global output.

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Fertilisers are another vulnerability that has been exposed by the current crisis.

From the perspective of Nigerian media, such as The Punch, this report serves as a critical wake-up call. It highlights the need for greater self-sufficiency and strategic investment in domestic energy and agricultural sectors. The mention of Dangote's refineries, one of Africa's largest, provides a local context, emphasizing the potential for regional solutions. The AFC's call for new energy hubs and improved performance from existing assets is a direct challenge to African nations to leverage their resources and overcome logistical hurdles. The report presents a dual challenge: mitigating immediate risks from global instability while seizing the opportunity for long-term industrial development and economic resilience.

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There’s a real opportunity for Africa to step in the gap here.