Africa's Low-Key High-Stakes Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global trade route, has been significantly disrupted for nearly six months following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February. Maritime traffic has dwindled to a minimum, with cargo ships facing direct fire from Iranian forces and threats from both Tehran and Washington causing shipping standstills. Despite various talks, joint memorandums, and discussions about a maritime mission, the situation remains unstable. A potential deal between Iran and Oman to establish a shipping route is now being watched closely.

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I believe their long-term plan is still based on the assumption that the crisis in the Middle East may continue for some time.

The conflict has triggered a global surge in fossil fuel prices, contributing to rising inflation worldwide. African nations, despite their relative proximity to the Gulf region, are experiencing severe fuel shortages, leading to long queues at gas stations. The scarcity extends to fertilizers, which are largely sourced from the Gulf, raising concerns about a potentially poor harvest season this year. Consequently, African governments have a strong incentive to pursue diplomatic solutions.

Experts suggest that long-term planning in Africa is based on the assumption that the Middle East crisis will persist. While the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, there is little evidence of renewed optimism or revised economic planning. Many observers believe African governments are adopting a low-key diplomatic approach, emphasizing negotiated solutions and the rules-based international order. Some have also expressed solidarity with U.S. allies in the Gulf region that have faced Iranian pressure.

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We don't see any evidence that there was some kind of optimism or revising of any economic planning after the MOU. I think everyone literally is just waiting to see how this is going to pan out in the next couple of months.

African members of the UN Security Council have supported resolutions condemning Iranian attacks. However, communications indicate a deliberate effort by African governments to avoid assigning blame, particularly to the U.S. president, whom some analysts identify as the instigator of the current crisis. This cautious stance is attributed to a widespread fear among global leaders, including those in Africa, of openly criticizing Donald Trump.

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Every rational human being in the world knows that this crisis has been occasioned by Mr. Donald Trump. But the majority of African leaders, and indeed across the world, fear to call him out because of th