AI's Memory Demand to Slash Global Smartphone Shipments by 14% in 2026; Apple, Samsung Least Affected

The global smartphone market faces a significant downturn, with shipments expected to drop by 13.9% in 2026 to about 1.08 billion units. This revised forecast from Counterpoint Research highlights supply-side constraints rather than weak consumer demand as the primary driver of the market correction.

The core issue stems from the booming AI industry's demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and server DRAM. Memory manufacturers are prioritizing these high-growth products, leading to a tightening supply of LPDDR4 and LPDDR5 memory crucial for smartphones. Prices for these components are projected to triple by the second quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, with LPDDR4 supply potentially falling by over 40%. This will disproportionately impact the mid-to-low-end smartphone market.

This supply crunch and cost escalation present considerable challenges for smartphone brands in product planning, pricing, and supply chain management. Apple, with its premium product strategy and robust supply chain, is expected to maintain stable iPhone shipments in 2026 and resume growth in 2027. Samsung is also predicted to fare relatively well, with only a modest 4% decline in shipments for 2026, outperforming the overall market.

Other brands, like Xiaomi, are more sensitive to cost fluctuations and may face greater shipment pressures. As new device prices climb, consumers are likely to extend their upgrade cycles. Consequently, the market for used and refurbished smartphones is poised for continued double-digit growth in 2026. Analysts emphasize that supply chain stability will be key, alongside technological innovation and ecosystem development, for the industry's long-term recovery.