'An unprecedented event': UK Met Office says this year's El Niño to be 'biggest for over a century'

Britain's national weather agency has forecast that this year's El Niño will be the most powerful in more than a century, pushing sea surface temperatures to unprecedented highs.

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We are expecting the biggest El Niño for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees, that is unheard-of in modern climate records.

Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, described the event as "unprecedented" and stated he had "never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts." He anticipates the phenomenon to peak at over three degrees Celsius above the baseline average, a level unseen in modern climate records.

The Met Office predicts significant global impacts, including severe droughts in regions like South America and the West Pacific. Conversely, the UK can expect increased rainfall and storminess around November.

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I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.

Scaife emphasized the long-term nature of these conditions, warning of well-known impacts on essential systems like food and food security. The anomalous warmth, already nearly two degrees Celsius above average, is expected to have particularly strong effects throughout the Tropics.

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These are not short-term weather forecasts. We’re talking about really long-term, persistent conditions here. There are well-known impacts on other systems including food, food security.