Analyst Says Russia Could Test NATO Unity by Targeting Three Countries

Russia could test NATO's unity without sending tanks across the alliance's border, according to former U.S. Army counterintelligence specialist David DeBatto. He said Moscow might instead launch a large-scale drone and missile attack against one of the Baltic states.

DeBatto told TVP World that Russia could deliberately provoke a limited conflict to see how NATO, especially the United States, would respond. If the response did not deter Moscow, he said, Russia could act more aggressively later.

The Baltic states would be the most likely targets in such a test, DeBatto said. Possible attacks could include missiles and drones, as well as efforts to disrupt communications and air-defense systems.

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to see how NATO, especially the United States, would defend the Baltic states

The assessment followed CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow on Aug. 25. The Kremlin said Ratcliffe met Russian intelligence officials but not President Vladimir Putin. Information about the talks was later passed to Putin. The Wall Street Journal reported that warning Russia against attacking NATO countries was one purpose of the visit, while U.S. President Donald Trump described the trip as "partly routine."

DeBatto compared the visit with former CIA Director William Burns' trip to Moscow in November 2021, when Washington warned the Kremlin about Russia's troop buildup near Ukraine. Regional concern also grew after Belarus unexpectedly began checking the combat readiness of its armed forces. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko then traveled to Moscow to meet Putin. Belarus allowed Russian forces to use its territory to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and continues to maintain close military ties with Moscow.

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partly routine