Are we in for a summer of serial heatwaves?

The United Kingdom has already endured two heatwaves this summer, shattering long-standing temperature records and prompting extreme heat warnings. While the current June heatwave is expected to subside over the weekend, forecasters indicate a strong possibility of more heatwaves occurring throughout the summer. This follows a period in May when a high-pressure system, dubbed a 'heat dome,' brought exceptionally warm and dry weather, setting a new May temperature record of 35.1C.

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an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts

After a brief cooler spell in early June, another intense heatwave arrived, breaking the all-time June temperature record. Forecasters had predicted higher-than-normal temperatures for June, and seasonal outlooks suggest an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts for July and August. "Significant bursts" of heat are anticipated not only in the UK but also across Europe. The Met Office notes that hotter summers are now twice as likely compared to the 1991-2020 period, consistent with a warming climate.

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above-average temperatures

Scientists attribute the increasing intensity, frequency, and duration of heatwaves to human-induced climate change, which is raising the baseline temperature. The Met Office has warned of an accelerating pace in the likelihood of extreme temperatures, with the chance of exceeding 40C increasing. The UK recorded its first temperature above 40C in July 2022, reaching 40.3C. If global warming continues at its current rate, temperatures in the mid-forties could become a serious possibility.

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significant bursts