As Campaigns Begin in Nigeria, Tinubu’s Re-election Bid Puts His Party on Trial

As campaigning kicks off for Nigeria's January elections, President Bola Tinubu's pursuit of a second term is shadowed by a critical question: has Africa's most populous nation improved under more than a decade of rule by his All Progressives Congress (APC)? This question looms large as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi challenge Tinubu, capitalizing on widespread public frustration over economic struggles and insecurity.

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The APC’s tenure from 2015 to 2026 makes for unhappy reading and Tinubu’s reforms have particularly brought severe pain.

Their argument centers on the APC's nearly 12-year tenure, which began in 2015 under Muhammadu Buhari. Challengers contend that the party's time in power has left Nigeria poorer, more indebted, and less secure. A voter tracker indicates that nearly 80 percent of Nigerians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, with economic hardship and insecurity cited as the primary concerns by 45 percent.

Tinubu, often nicknamed "T-Pain" by Nigerians feeling the pinch of soaring living costs, is testing whether voters will tolerate short-term economic pain for the promise of future gains. His administration has moved swiftly on economic policy, scrapping a long-standing fuel subsidy and devaluing the naira twice. While these reforms were welcomed by investors and international lenders, they have also triggered significant hardship for households, fueling protests and what many describe as the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation.

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Our voter tracker shows nearly 80 per cent of Nigerians say the country is headed in the wrong direction with 45 per cent citing economic hardship and insecurity as their top concern.

Tinubu defends these measures as necessary to correct years of state intervention, pointing to increased revenues and investor interest as signs of progress. "Since 2023, our reforms have restored stability and credibility to economic management," he stated recently. However, many voters prioritize the immediate cost of essentials, like food, over macroeconomic indicators. A butcher in Abuja's Garki market noted a drastic drop in sales, struggling to sell even one or two goats a day compared to six five years ago due to soaring costs.

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Since 2023, our reforms have restored stability and credibility to economic management.

The campaign narrative is likely to be shaped by the disconnect between improving economic figures and worsening household finances. Tinubu also faces the challenge of voters evaluating his record alongside the legacy of his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, whose administration implemented policies like import curbs, currency controls, and border closures, with the fuel subsidy alone costing the government $10 billion in 2022.

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Five years ago, I used to sell six goats a day. Now I struggle to sell two, sometimes just one. It is difficult to make a profit and feed my family.